Part II · Demography and Identity

Chapter 6

Cross-Caste Voting Cohesion among Hindus

Arena 1.2 · weight 4 · reading 42.4 · opposed majority

6.1Scope

Whether Hindus vote as one bloc across castes.¹

The arena is measured by the NDA’s share of all Hindu votes in each caste group (NES 2024), its share of the Hindu vote in each state’s latest assembly election, and cohesion: how many Hindus live in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority.

6.2Significance

Seat results in UP, Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka; the caste-census and reservation fights are aimed at this fault line.

6.3Indicators and weights

Table 6.1 lists the 3 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 6.1. Indicators of arena 1.2

Indicator	Weight	Reading
National: NDA share of ALL Hindu votes, by caste group (NES 2024)	0.50	49.4
States: NDA share of the Hindu vote in the latest assembly election (Hindu-population weighted)²	0.30	48.7
Cohesion: share of Hindus in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority	0.20	19.7
Arena reading	1.00	42.4

6.4Reading

The arena reads 42.4, 7.6 points below parity, and is classified as opposed majority (a reading below 45). With a weight of 4 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.58 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for national: NDA share of ALL Hindu votes, by caste group (NES 2024) (49.4), the lowest for cohesion: share of Hindus in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority (19.7).

Figure 6.1. Readings of arena 1.2 by indicator

050100

National: NDA share of ALL Hindu votes, by caste group (NES 2024)49.4

States: NDA share of the Hindu vote in the latest assembly election (Hindu-population weighted)48.7

Cohesion: share of Hindus in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority19.7

Arena reading42.4

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

6.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. National: NDA share of ALL Hindu votes, by caste group (NES 2024)

Reading 49.4%

Figure 6.2. NDA vote vs all other votes among Hindus by caste group, 2024 (%)Lokniti-CSDS NES 2024

Upper castes19.7% of Hindus60.0%60 : 40

Upper OBC39.3% of Hindus48.0%48 : 52

Lower OBC11.4% of Hindus58.0%58 : 42

Dalit (SC)20% of Hindus36.0%36 : 64

Adivasi (ST)9.6% of Hindus51.0%51 : 49

NDAAll other parties

Data table

	NDA	All other parties	NDA share
Upper castes (19.7% of Hindus)	60	40	60.0%
Upper OBC (39.3% of Hindus)	48	52	48.0%
Lower OBC (11.4% of Hindus)	58	42	58.0%
Dalit (SC) (20% of Hindus)	36	64	36.0%
Adivasi (ST) (9.6% of Hindus)	51	49	51.0%

Figure 6.3. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 21 (% NDA vote)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.

LS2024 | All India | Upper caste60

LS2019 | All India | Upper caste59

LS2014 | All India | Upper caste58.8

LS2024 | All India | Lower OBC58

LS2019 | All India | Lower OBC58

LS2019 | All India | Upper OBC52

LS2024 | All India | Adivasi (ST)51

LS2014 | All India | Peasant proprietor castes (Jat, Maratha, Patidar etc.)50.8

LS2014 | All India | Lower OBC50.1

LS2024 | All India | Upper OBC48

LS2019 | All India | Adivasi (ST)45

LS2014 | All India | OBC (all)42

LS2019 | All India | Dalit (SC)41

LS2014 | All India | Adivasi (ST)40.2

LS2014 | All India | Upper OBC38.7

0100%

Data table

	% NDA vote	Side
LS2024 \| All India \| Upper caste	60	Hindutva-aligned
LS2019 \| All India \| Upper caste	59	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| Upper caste	58.8	Hindutva-aligned
LS2024 \| All India \| Lower OBC	58	Hindutva-aligned
LS2019 \| All India \| Lower OBC	58	Hindutva-aligned
LS2019 \| All India \| Upper OBC	52	Hindutva-aligned
LS2024 \| All India \| Adivasi (ST)	51	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| Peasant proprietor castes (Jat, Maratha, Patidar etc.)	50.8	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| Lower OBC	50.1	Hindutva-aligned
LS2024 \| All India \| Upper OBC	48	Hindutva-aligned
LS2019 \| All India \| Adivasi (ST)	45	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| OBC (all)	42	Hindutva-aligned
LS2019 \| All India \| Dalit (SC)	41	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| Adivasi (ST)	40.2	Hindutva-aligned
LS2014 \| All India \| Upper OBC	38.7	Hindutva-aligned

Figure 6.4. The 6 biggest of 6 (respondents (NES 2024 jati code count))

NES2024 frame | Hindu Peasant/dominant OBC (2xx) = Lokniti upper OBC4,215

NES2024 frame | Hindu Scheduled Castes (5xx)2,716

NES2024 frame | Hindu Upper castes (0xx, excl. Jain)2,684

NES2024 frame | Hindu Craftsmen + service OBC (3xx-4xx) = Lokniti lower OBC1,550

NES2024 frame | Hindu Scheduled Tribes (6xx)1,306

NES2024 frame | Hindu Peasant proprietors (1xx)1,137

Data table

	respondents (NES 2024 jati code count)	Side
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Peasant/dominant OBC (2xx) = Lokniti upper OBC	4,215	Neutral / not counted
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Scheduled Castes (5xx)	2,716	Neutral / not counted
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Upper castes (0xx, excl. Jain)	2,684	Neutral / not counted
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Craftsmen + service OBC (3xx-4xx) = Lokniti lower OBC	1,550	Neutral / not counted
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Scheduled Tribes (6xx)	1,306	Neutral / not counted
NES2024 frame \| Hindu Peasant proprietors (1xx)	1,137	Neutral / not counted

Figure 6.5. The 6 biggest of 6 (respondents (NES 2014 group n))

NES2014 frame | Hindu uobc5,092

NES2014 frame | Hindu sc3,414

NES2014 frame | Hindu uc2,936

NES2014 frame | Hindu lobc2,064

NES2014 frame | Hindu pp1,473

NES2014 frame | Hindu st1,215

Data table

	respondents (NES 2014 group n)	Side
NES2014 frame \| Hindu uobc	5,092	Neutral / not counted
NES2014 frame \| Hindu sc	3,414	Neutral / not counted
NES2014 frame \| Hindu uc	2,936	Neutral / not counted
NES2014 frame \| Hindu lobc	2,064	Neutral / not counted
NES2014 frame \| Hindu pp	1,473	Neutral / not counted
NES2014 frame \| Hindu st	1,215	Neutral / not counted

Figure 6.6. Over time: NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted, NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted) · % NDA vote

NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietorsNDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 splitNDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2014 own frame) [central]

Data table

	NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietors	NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))	NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 split	NDA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2014 own frame) [central]
2014				43.1
2019	51.6	52.6	52.6
2024	49.4	51.1	51

Figure 6.7. Over time: INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted, INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted) · % INDIA vote

INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietorsINDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 split

Data table

	INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietors	INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))	INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 split
2019	23.6	22.5	22.4
2024	30.1	28	27.6

Figure 6.8. Over time: INDIA % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted · % UPA vote

Data table

	INDIA(UPA) % of ALL Hindu votes, caste-weighted (NES 2014 own frame) [central]
2014	19.3

Figure 6.9. Over time: NDA % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti published, BJP % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti published · % vote

NDA % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti publishedBJP % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti published

Data table

	NDA % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti published	BJP % of all Hindu votes, Lokniti published
2014	43	36
2019	51	44

Measure 2. States: NDA share of the Hindu vote in the latest assembly election (Hindu-population weighted)

Reading 48.7%

Ecological estimate from ECI results and Census religion shares, 31 states; runs 2-4 points below the survey checks (unity_units.csv)

Figure 6.10. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 24 (% NDA vote among Hindu voters (estimated))Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.

AE2024 | Sikkim | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate72.2

AE2026 | Assam | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate70.5

AE2026 | West Bengal | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate59.9

AE2024 | Andhra Pradesh | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate59.4

AE2022 | Gujarat | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate57.4

AE2024 | Maharashtra | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate55.7

AE2025 | Delhi (NCT) | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate54.7

AE2025 | Bihar | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate54.1

AE2022 | Uttar Pradesh | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate52.1

AE2023 | Madhya Pradesh | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate51.6

AE2022 | Uttarakhand | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate51.1

AE2023 | Chhattisgarh | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate47.6

AE2023 | Rajasthan | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate45.4

AE2022 | Himachal Pradesh | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate44.2

AE2024 | Haryana | Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate44

0100%

Data table

	% NDA vote among Hindu voters (estimated)	Side
AE2024 \| Sikkim \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	72.2	Hindutva-aligned
AE2026 \| Assam \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	70.5	Hindutva-aligned
AE2026 \| West Bengal \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	59.9	Hindutva-aligned
AE2024 \| Andhra Pradesh \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	59.4	Hindutva-aligned
AE2022 \| Gujarat \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	57.4	Hindutva-aligned
AE2024 \| Maharashtra \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	55.7	Hindutva-aligned
AE2025 \| Delhi (NCT) \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	54.7	Hindutva-aligned
AE2025 \| Bihar \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	54.1	Hindutva-aligned
AE2022 \| Uttar Pradesh \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	52.1	Hindutva-aligned
AE2023 \| Madhya Pradesh \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	51.6	Hindutva-aligned
AE2022 \| Uttarakhand \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	51.1	Hindutva-aligned
AE2023 \| Chhattisgarh \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	47.6	Hindutva-aligned
AE2023 \| Rajasthan \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	45.4	Hindutva-aligned
AE2022 \| Himachal Pradesh \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	44.2	Hindutva-aligned
AE2024 \| Haryana \| Hindu (all castes), ecological estimate	44	Hindutva-aligned

Measure 3. Cohesion: share of Hindus in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority

Reading 19.7%

Share of Hindus living in caste groups where the NDA wins an outright majority of the vote.

Figure 6.11. Over time: Cohesion OLD (100 minus caste gap) · 0-100

Data table

	Cohesion OLD: 100 minus caste gap (max-min NDA %)
2024	76

Figure 6.12. Over time: Cohesion NEW: % of Hindus in caste groups where…, Cohesion ALT: % of Hindus in caste groups where… · % of Hindus

Cohesion NEW: % of Hindus in caste groups where NDA wins an absolute majorityCohesion ALT: % of Hindus in caste groups where NDA leads INDIA

Data table

	Cohesion NEW: % of Hindus in caste groups where NDA wins an absolute majority	Cohesion ALT: % of Hindus in caste groups where NDA leads INDIA
2019	70.4
2024	40.7	100

Figure 6.13. Over time: Cohesion ALT (minimum NDA % across Hindu caste groups) · % NDA vote

Data table

	Cohesion ALT: minimum NDA % across Hindu caste groups (weakest link)
2019	41
2024	36

Measure 4. Regional identity: India-first and the Hindu NDA vote in the South and Bengal

Reading 39.1%

India first 39 vs State first 61

Measure 5. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading

Figure 6.14. Over time: Two-way NDA/ among Hindus, Two-way NDA/ among Hindus) · 0-100

Two-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietors inTwo-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))Two-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 split 41:59,Two-way NDA/(NDA+UPA) among Hindus (NES 2014 own frame) [central]

Data table

	Two-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (NES 2024 frame, peasant proprietors in	Two-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (Dashboard (assumed 24/18/26/22/10))	Two-way NDA/(NDA+INDIA) among Hindus (Pew 2021 (General 30, OBC 35 split 41:59,	Two-way NDA/(NDA+UPA) among Hindus (NES 2014 own frame) [central]
2014				69.1
2019	68.6	70	70.1
2024	62.1	64.6	64.9

Figure 6.15. Over time: State component: Hindu-population-weighted NDA …, State component: simple mean across states, State NDA % among Hindu voters: Uttar Pradesh and 3 more · % NDA vote

State component: Hindu-population-weighted NDA % among Hindu voters, latestState component: simple mean across statesState NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Uttar Pradesh (assembly 2022)State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Bihar (assembly 2025)State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Maharashtra (assembly 2024)State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Madhya Pradesh (assembly 2023)

Data table

	State component: Hindu-population-weighted NDA % among Hindu voters, latest	State component: simple mean across states	State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Uttar Pradesh (assembly 2022)	State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Bihar (assembly 2025)	State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Maharashtra (assembly 2024)	State NDA % among Hindu voters (ecological): Madhya Pradesh (assembly 2023)
2022			52.1
2023						51.6
2024					55.7
2025				54.1
2026	48.7	46.7

Figure 6.16. Over time: State component coverage (Hindus in the states used) · % of Hindus

Data table

	State component coverage: Hindus in the states used (% of Hindus in all 31
2026	98.4

Figure 6.17. Regional identity: India-first and the Hindu NDA vote in the South and Bengal

Reading39.1%39.1 : 60.9

India firstState first

Data table

	India first	State first	India first share
Reading	39.1	60.9	39.1%

6.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 150 coded units and 64 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 137 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 0 opposed and 13 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 93 grade B, 53 grade C, 2 grade D, 2 grade E.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

Lokniti-CSDS NES 2024. ↩
Ecological estimate from ECI results and Census religion shares, 31 states; runs 2-4 points below the survey checks (unity_units.csv). ↩