The India Power Atlas
Part II · Demography and Identity
Chapter 7

The Committed Core Electorate

Arena 1.3 · weight 5 · reading 15.9 · opposed majority

7.1Scope

The share of the electorate that continues to vote for the BJP when economic conditions, governance and leadership are unfavourable.1

The arena is measured by the BJP’s worst-year floor (2009), its vote that does not depend on Modi, the share who identify with the BJP (NES 2024), and the floor across states since 2000; then stress-tested for a decade out of power and a new generation (−23%).

Principal evidence: BJP’s floor vote since 1991: 18.8% in 2009 (ECI), when the party was out of power with no winning leader. High end: 2024 BJP vote (36.6%) minus the 25% of BJP voters who say they would not have voted BJP without Modi (Lokniti) = 27%. The rest of the electorate is the contest the core must win over.

7.2Significance

Sets the floor under every election, and what would remain after the loss of a leader or of office. Because this loyalty is not institutionalised by the State, it must be renewed in each generation.

7.3Indicators and weights

Table 7.1 lists the 4 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 7.1. Indicators of arena 1.3

IndicatorWeightReading
BJP floor vote, Lok Sabha 2009 (% of voters)20.3018.8
BJP vote that does not depend on Modi0.2027.4
BJP party identification (NES 2024, % feel close)30.3019.2
Population-weighted state floor 2000-26 (elections where the BJP contested at least half the seats)40.2018.5
Arena reading1.0015.9

7.4Reading

The arena reads 15.9, 34.1 points below parity, and is classified as opposed majority (a reading below 45). With a weight of 5 of a total 107.7, it contributes 0.74 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

Figure 7.1. Readings of arena 1.3 by indicator
050100
BJP floor vote, Lok Sabha 2009 (% of voters)18.8
BJP vote that does not depend on Modi27.4
BJP party identification (NES 2024, % feel close)19.2
Population-weighted state floor 2000-26 (elections where the BJP contested at least half the seats)18.5
Arena reading15.9
Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

7.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. BJP floor vote, Lok Sabha 2009 (% of voters)

Reading 18.8%

ECI

Figure 7.2. BJP vote share in Lok Sabha elections, %The floor (2009, out of power, no winning leader) is the conservative core. ECI via Wikipedia (C).
010203040199520002005201020152020floor 18.8% (2009)BJP vote share 1991: 20.1%BJP vote share 1996: 20.3%BJP vote share 1998: 25.6%BJP vote share 1999: 23.8%BJP vote share 2004: 22.2%BJP vote share 2009: 18.8%BJP vote share 2014: 31.3%BJP vote share 2019: 37.4%BJP vote share 2024: 36.6%36.6
Data table
BJP vote share
199120.1
199620.3
199825.6
199923.8
200422.2
200918.8
201431.3
201937.4
202436.6
Figure 7.3. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 88 (% of valid votes)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Tripura | LS 2024 BJP vote70.8
Himachal Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote69.1
Gujarat | LS 2019 BJP vote62.2
Gujarat | LS 2024 BJP vote61.8
Uttarakhand | LS 2019 BJP vote61.0
Madhya Pradesh | LS 2024 BJP vote59.3
Gujarat | LS 2014 BJP vote59.1
Rajasthan | LS 2019 BJP vote58.5
Arunachal Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote58.2
Haryana | LS 2019 BJP vote58.0
Madhya Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote58
Uttarakhand | LS 2024 BJP vote56.9
NCT of Delhi | LS 2019 BJP vote56.6
Himachal Pradesh | LS 2024 BJP vote56.4
Uttarakhand | LS 2014 BJP vote55.3
0100%
Data table
% of valid votesSide
Tripura | LS 2024 BJP vote70.8Hindutva-aligned
Himachal Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote69.1Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | LS 2019 BJP vote62.2Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | LS 2024 BJP vote61.8Hindutva-aligned
Uttarakhand | LS 2019 BJP vote61.0Hindutva-aligned
Madhya Pradesh | LS 2024 BJP vote59.3Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | LS 2014 BJP vote59.1Hindutva-aligned
Rajasthan | LS 2019 BJP vote58.5Hindutva-aligned
Arunachal Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote58.2Hindutva-aligned
Haryana | LS 2019 BJP vote58.0Hindutva-aligned
Madhya Pradesh | LS 2019 BJP vote58Hindutva-aligned
Uttarakhand | LS 2024 BJP vote56.9Hindutva-aligned
NCT of Delhi | LS 2019 BJP vote56.6Hindutva-aligned
Himachal Pradesh | LS 2024 BJP vote56.4Hindutva-aligned
Uttarakhand | LS 2014 BJP vote55.3Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.4. Over time: BJP Lok Sabha vote share · % of valid votes
0102030401990200020102020BJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1984: 7.74% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1989: 11.4% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1991: 20.1% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1996: 20.3% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1998: 25.6% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 1999: 23.8% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 2004: 22.2% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 2009: 18.8% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 2014: 31.3% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 2019: 37.4% of valid votesBJP Lok Sabha vote share (national) 2024: 36.6% of valid votes36.6
Data table
BJP Lok Sabha vote share (national)
19847.74
198911.4
199120.1
199620.3
199825.6
199923.8
200422.2
200918.8
201431.3
201937.4
202436.6
Figure 7.5. Over time: BJP Lok Sabha seats · seats
01002003001990200020102020BJP Lok Sabha seats 1984: 2seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 1989: 85seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 1991: 120seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 1996: 161seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 1998: 182seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 1999: 182seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 2004: 138seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 2009: 116seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 2014: 282seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 2019: 303seatsBJP Lok Sabha seats 2024: 240seats240
Data table
BJP Lok Sabha seats
19842
198985
1991120
1996161
1998182
1999182
2004138
2009116
2014282
2019303
2024240

Measure 2. BJP vote that does not depend on Modi

Reading 27.5%

BJP vote 2024 (36.6%) × (1 − 25% who voted for Modi, not the party).

Figure 7.6. Each counted row (% of valid votes)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
All India | BJP vote not dependent on Modi, 2024 (all-voter basis, least favourable)27.6
All India | BJP vote not dependent on Modi, 202427.4
0100%
Data table
% of valid votesSide
All India | BJP vote not dependent on Modi, 2024 (all-voter basis, least favourable)27.6Hindutva-aligned
All India | BJP vote not dependent on Modi, 202427.4Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.7. Each counted row (% of respondents)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
All India | Most-liked govt work is a Hindutva item30.8
All India | BJP re-election backers giving an ideological reason4.7
0100%
Data table
% of respondentsSide
All India | Most-liked govt work is a Hindutva item30.8Hindutva-aligned
All India | BJP re-election backers giving an ideological reason4.7Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.8. Each counted row (% of voters)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
All India | Voted for party they really wanted (not lack of alternative), all voters82.9
All India | Party mattered more than candidate, all voters49.9
0100%
Data table
% of votersSide
All India | Voted for party they really wanted (not lack of alternative), all voters82.9Hindutva-aligned
All India | Party mattered more than candidate, all voters49.9Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.9. Over time: BJP voters who would have changed vote without … · % of BJP voters
010203040201420162018202020222024BJP voters who would have changed vote without Modi 2014: 27% of BJP votersBJP voters who would have changed vote without Modi 2019: 32% of BJP votersBJP voters who would have changed vote without Modi 2024: 25% of BJP voters25
Data table
BJP voters who would have changed vote without Modi
201427
201932
202425
Figure 7.10. Over time: BJP vote not dependent on Modi · % of valid votes
0102030201420162018202020222024BJP vote not dependent on Modi (DERIVED) 2014: 22.9% of valid votesBJP vote not dependent on Modi (DERIVED) 2019: 25.4% of valid votesBJP vote not dependent on Modi (DERIVED) 2024: 27.4% of valid votes27.4
Data table
BJP vote not dependent on Modi (DERIVED)
201422.9
201925.4
202427.4
Figure 7.11. Over time: Core reading, current formula 0.5*floor2009 + 0… · 0-100
0102030201420162018202020222024Core reading, current formula 0.5*floor2009 + 0.5*Modi-independent vote 2014: 20.80-100Core reading, current formula 0.5*floor2009 + 0.5*Modi-independent vote 2019: 22.10-100Core reading, current formula 0.5*floor2009 + 0.5*Modi-independent vote 2024: 23.10-10023.1
Data table
Core reading, current formula 0.5*floor2009 + 0.5*Modi-independent vote
201420.8
201922.1
202423.1

Measure 3. BJP party identification (NES 2024, % feel close)

Reading 19.2%

Lokniti NES 2024 (core_units.csv)

Figure 7.12. Each counted row (% of respondents)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
All India | Feel close to BJP (party identification), all respondents19.2
All India | Feel close to BJP, all respondents (DERIVED)13.7
0100%
Data table
% of respondentsSide
All India | Feel close to BJP (party identification), all respondents19.2Hindutva-aligned
All India | Feel close to BJP, all respondents (DERIVED)13.7Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.13. Each counted row (% of partisans)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans43.2
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans41
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans27
0100%
Data table
% of partisansSide
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans43.2Hindutva-aligned
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans41Hindutva-aligned
All India | Feel close to BJP, share of partisans27Hindutva-aligned
Figure 7.14. Over time: BJP share of party identifiers, INC share of party identifiers · % of partisans
0204020002005201020152020BJP share of party identifiers (feel close to a party) 1996: 27% of partisansBJP share of party identifiers (feel close to a party) 2019: 41% of partisansBJP share of party identifiers (feel close to a party) 2024: 43.2% of partisansINC share of party identifiers 1996: 27% of partisansINC share of party identifiers 2019: 18% of partisansINC share of party identifiers 2024: 23.4% of partisans43.223.4
BJP share of party identifiers (feel close to a party)INC share of party identifiers
Data table
BJP share of party identifiers (feel close to a party)INC share of party identifiers
19962727
20194118
202443.223.4
Figure 7.15. Over time: BJP identifiers, % of all respondents · % of respondents
0510152020002005201020152020BJP identifiers, % of all respondents 2024: 19.2% of respondentsBJP identifiers, % of all respondents (DERIVED ~1/3 partisans) 1996: 9% of respondentsBJP identifiers, % of all respondents (DERIVED ~1/3 partisans) 2019: 13.7% of respondents19.213.7
BJP identifiers, % of all respondentsBJP identifiers, % of all respondents (DERIVED ~1/3 partisans)
Data table
BJP identifiers, % of all respondentsBJP identifiers, % of all respondents (DERIVED ~1/3 partisans)
19969
201913.7
202419.2

Measure 4. Population-weighted state floor 2000-26 (elections where the BJP contested at least half the seats)

Reading 18.5%

core_units.csv, State floor aggregate; non-contests and seat-sharing years dropped (owner, round 2 D4; audit DATA14-043; was 16.74)

Figure 7.16. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 232 (% of valid votes)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Arunachal Pradesh | Assembly 2024 BJP vote54.6
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu | BJP floor 2000-202652.8
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu | BJP floor 2014-202652.8
Gujarat | Assembly 2022 BJP vote52.5
Arunachal Pradesh | Assembly 2019 BJP vote50.9
Gujarat | Assembly 2002 BJP vote49.9
Gujarat | Assembly 2007 BJP vote49.1
Gujarat | Assembly 2017 BJP vote49.1
Gujarat | BJP floor 2014-202649.1
Himachal Pradesh | Assembly 2017 BJP vote48.8
Madhya Pradesh | Assembly 2023 BJP vote48.6
Gujarat | Assembly 2012 BJP vote47.9
Gujarat | BJP floor 2000-202647.9
Andaman & Nicobar Islands | BJP floor 2000-202647.8
Andaman & Nicobar Islands | BJP floor 2014-202647.8
0100%
Data table
% of valid votesSide
Arunachal Pradesh | Assembly 2024 BJP vote54.6Hindutva-aligned
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu | BJP floor 2000-202652.8Hindutva-aligned
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu | BJP floor 2014-202652.8Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Assembly 2022 BJP vote52.5Hindutva-aligned
Arunachal Pradesh | Assembly 2019 BJP vote50.9Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Assembly 2002 BJP vote49.9Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Assembly 2007 BJP vote49.1Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Assembly 2017 BJP vote49.1Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | BJP floor 2014-202649.1Hindutva-aligned
Himachal Pradesh | Assembly 2017 BJP vote48.8Hindutva-aligned
Madhya Pradesh | Assembly 2023 BJP vote48.6Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Assembly 2012 BJP vote47.9Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | BJP floor 2000-202647.9Hindutva-aligned
Andaman & Nicobar Islands | BJP floor 2000-202647.8Hindutva-aligned
Andaman & Nicobar Islands | BJP floor 2014-202647.8Hindutva-aligned

7.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 339 coded units and 40 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 339 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 0 opposed and 0 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 36 grade A, 8 grade B, 295 grade C.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

  1. ECI 2009, 2024; Lokniti NES 2024. ↩
  2. ECI. ↩
  3. Lokniti NES 2024 (core_units.csv). ↩
  4. core_units.csv, State floor aggregate; non-contests and seat-sharing years dropped (owner, round 2 D4; audit DATA14-043; was 16.74). ↩