The India Power Atlas
Part VIII · The State
Chapter 34

Parliament

Arena 7.6 · weight 4 · reading 63.8 · aligned majority

34.1Scope

Law-making power.1

The arena is measured by Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha strength now, and how the key contested votes of 2024-26 went.

34.2Significance

Laws, amendments, budgets.

34.3Indicators and weights

Table 34.1 lists the 3 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 34.1. Indicators of arena 7.6

IndicatorWeightReading
Lok Sabha strength now (NDA incl. the 20 NCPI MPs)0.5558.7
Rajya Sabha strength now0.2562.1
Key contested votes 2024-26 (ayes share for the NDA position)20.2080.0
Arena reading1.0063.8

34.4Reading

The arena reads 63.8, 13.8 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 4 of a total 107.7, it contributes 2.37 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for key contested votes 2024-26 (ayes share for the NDA position) (80.0), the lowest for Lok Sabha strength now (NDA incl. the 20 NCPI MPs) (58.7).

Figure 34.1. Readings of arena 7.6 by indicator
050100
Lok Sabha strength now (NDA incl. the 20 NCPI MPs)58.7
Rajya Sabha strength now62.1
Key contested votes 2024-26 (ayes share for the NDA position)80.0
Arena reading63.8
Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

34.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Lok Sabha strength now (NDA incl. the 20 NCPI MPs)

Reading 58.7%

NDA 293 seats won in 2024 + 26 since (20 NCPI MPs who left AITC, 6 Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs who joined Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the Nagaon bypoll, less UPPL, which left the NDA) of 543.

Figure 34.2. Lok Sabha now (Oct 2026): seats by partyHindutva-aligned camp 319 (NDA plus the 20 NCPI MPs who left AITC in June 2026 and back the NDA) vs 224 for everyone else. AITC is down to 8; the source table sums to 541, and 2 unidentified seats count against.
BJP241
INC98
SP37
DMK22
NCPI (ex-AITC, backs NDA)20
TDP16
Shiv Sena13
JD(U)12
AITC8
NCP(SP)8
LJP(RV)5
RJD4
YSRCP4
CPI(M)4
JMM3
SS(UBT)3
AAP3
IUML3
unreconciled2
VCK2
CPI(ML)L2
RLD2
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
seatsSide
BJP241Hindutva-aligned
INC98Opposed
SP37Opposed
DMK22Opposed
NCPI (ex-AITC, backs NDA)20Hindutva-aligned
TDP16Hindutva-aligned
Shiv Sena13Hindutva-aligned
JD(U)12Hindutva-aligned
AITC8Opposed
NCP(SP)8Opposed
LJP(RV)5Hindutva-aligned
RJD4Opposed
YSRCP4Opposed
CPI(M)4Opposed
JMM3Opposed
SS(UBT)3Opposed
AAP3Opposed
IUML3Opposed
unreconciled2Opposed
VCK2Opposed
CPI(ML)L2Opposed
RLD2Hindutva-aligned
Figure 34.3. For reference: Lok Sabha seats won in the 2024 electionThe 2024 result, before the AITC split and other realignments. The legislative-heft reading uses the House as it is now (chart above).
BJP240
INC99
SP37
AITC29
DMK22
TDP16
JD(U)12
SHSUBT9
NCPSP8
IND7
SHS7
LJPRV5
YSRCP4
RJD4
CPI(M)4
IUML3
JMM3
AAAP3
VCK2
CPI(ML)(L)2
Hindutva-alignedOpposedNeutral / not counted
Data table
seatsSide
BJP240Hindutva-aligned
INC99Opposed
SP37Opposed
AITC29Opposed
DMK22Opposed
TDP16Hindutva-aligned
JD(U)12Hindutva-aligned
SHSUBT9Opposed
NCPSP8Opposed
IND7Neutral / not counted
SHS7Hindutva-aligned
LJPRV5Hindutva-aligned
YSRCP4Neutral / not counted
RJD4Opposed
CPI(M)4Opposed
IUML3Opposed
JMM3Opposed
AAAP3Opposed
VCK2Opposed
CPI(ML)(L)2Opposed
Figure 34.4. NDA Lok Sabha seats under a uniform swing (points to NDA)Each point re-runs all 543 seats; state swings set in Reshape Power are kept.
0200400-7.5-5-2.502.557.5majority 272NDA seats -8: 127NDA seats -7.5: 134NDA seats -7: 146NDA seats -6.5: 155NDA seats -6: 165NDA seats -5.5: 172NDA seats -5: 183NDA seats -4.5: 190NDA seats -4: 202NDA seats -3.5: 215NDA seats -3: 224NDA seats -2.5: 234NDA seats -2: 251NDA seats -1.5: 263NDA seats -1: 276NDA seats -0.5: 282NDA seats 0: 293NDA seats 0.5: 300NDA seats 1: 316NDA seats 1.5: 328NDA seats 2: 340NDA seats 2.5: 349NDA seats 3: 364NDA seats 3.5: 377NDA seats 4: 384NDA seats 4.5: 392NDA seats 5: 403NDA seats 5.5: 414NDA seats 6: 426NDA seats 6.5: 430NDA seats 7: 437NDA seats 7.5: 443NDA seats 8: 451451
Data table
NDA seats
-8127
-7.5134
-7146
-6.5155
-6165
-5.5172
-5183
-4.5190
-4202
-3.5215
-3224
-2.5234
-2251
-1.5263
-1276
-0.5282
0293
0.5300
1316
1.5328
2340
2.5349
3364
3.5377
4384
4.5392
5403
5.5414
6426
6.5430
First 30 of 33 rows; all rows are in the data file (Appendix D).
Figure 34.5. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
Hindutva-aligned 319 seats · 58.7%Opposed 220 seats · 40.5%Transactional 0 seats · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 4 seats · 0.7%
Data table
seatsShare
Hindutva-aligned31958.7%
Opposed22040.5%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted40.7%
Figure 34.6. The 15 biggest of 47 (seats)
Lok Sabha: BJP241
Lok Sabha: INC98
Lok Sabha: SP37
Lok Sabha: DMK22
Lok Sabha: NCPI (Nationalist Citizens Party of India: 20 MPs who left AITC; supports the NDA government)20
Lok Sabha: TDP16
Lok Sabha: Shiv Sena13
Lok Sabha: JD(U)12
Lok Sabha: AITC8
Lok Sabha: NCP(SP)8
Lok Sabha: LJP(RV)5
Lok Sabha: CPI(M)4
Lok Sabha: RJD4
Lok Sabha: YSRCP4
Lok Sabha: SS(UBT)3
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
seatsSide
Lok Sabha: BJP241Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: INC98Opposed
Lok Sabha: SP37Opposed
Lok Sabha: DMK22Opposed
Lok Sabha: NCPI (Nationalist Citizens Party of India: 20 MPs who left AITC; supports the NDA government)20Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: TDP16Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: Shiv Sena13Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: JD(U)12Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: AITC8Opposed
Lok Sabha: NCP(SP)8Opposed
Lok Sabha: LJP(RV)5Hindutva-aligned
Lok Sabha: CPI(M)4Opposed
Lok Sabha: RJD4Opposed
Lok Sabha: YSRCP4Opposed
Lok Sabha: SS(UBT)3Opposed

Measure 2. Rajya Sabha strength now

Reading 62.1%

NDA 151 vs INDIA and others (2 vacancies left out) 92

Figure 34.7. Rajya Sabha strength now
Reading62.1%151 : 92
NDAINDIA and others (2 vacancies left out)
Data table
NDAINDIA and others (2 vacancies left out)NDA share
Reading1519262.1%
Figure 34.8. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
Hindutva-aligned 151 seats · 61.6%Opposed 92 seats · 37.6%Transactional 0 seats · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 2 seats · 0.8%
Data table
seatsShare
Hindutva-aligned15161.6%
Opposed9237.6%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted20.8%
Figure 34.9. The 15 biggest of 39 (seats)
Rajya Sabha: BJP116
Rajya Sabha: INC30
Rajya Sabha: AITC9
Rajya Sabha: DMK8
Rajya Sabha: Nominated (NDA bench)7
Rajya Sabha: BJD5
Rajya Sabha: AIADMK4
Rajya Sabha: JD(U)4
Rajya Sabha: NCP4
Rajya Sabha: TDP4
Rajya Sabha: SP4
Rajya Sabha: YSRCP4
Rajya Sabha: Independents (NDA)3
Rajya Sabha: CPI(M)3
Rajya Sabha: JKNC3
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
seatsSide
Rajya Sabha: BJP116Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: INC30Opposed
Rajya Sabha: AITC9Opposed
Rajya Sabha: DMK8Opposed
Rajya Sabha: Nominated (NDA bench)7Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: BJD5Opposed
Rajya Sabha: AIADMK4Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: JD(U)4Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: NCP4Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: TDP4Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: SP4Opposed
Rajya Sabha: YSRCP4Opposed
Rajya Sabha: Independents (NDA)3Hindutva-aligned
Rajya Sabha: CPI(M)3Opposed
Rajya Sabha: JKNC3Opposed

Measure 3. Key contested votes 2024-26 (ayes share for the NDA position)

Reading 80.0%

Waqf LS 55.4, Waqf RS 57.4, ONOE 57.6, VP 60.1, 131st Amendment 56.4

Figure 34.10. Each counted row (% ayes of ayes+noes)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Vice-Presidential election 2025: C.P. Radhakrishnan (NDA) vs B. Sudershan Reddy (INDIA) (Electoral college (both60.1
Constitution (129th Amendment) Bill 2024 - One Nation One Election, motion to introduce (Lok Sabha, 2024-12-17)57.6
Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025 (Rajya Sabha, 2025-04-04)57.4
Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 - delimitation with 2011 Census, LS seats to up to 850, operationalise women's56.4
Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025 (Lok Sabha, 2025-04-03)55.4
0100%
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
% ayes of ayes+noesSide
Vice-Presidential election 2025: C.P. Radhakrishnan (NDA) vs B. Sudershan Reddy (INDIA) (Electoral college (both60.1Hindutva-aligned
Constitution (129th Amendment) Bill 2024 - One Nation One Election, motion to introduce (Lok Sabha, 2024-12-17)57.6Hindutva-aligned
Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025 (Rajya Sabha, 2025-04-04)57.4Hindutva-aligned
Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 - delimitation with 2011 Census, LS seats to up to 850, operationalise women's56.4Opposed
Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025 (Lok Sabha, 2025-04-03)55.4Hindutva-aligned

34.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 156 coded units. Of the units and flows, 70 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 81 opposed and 5 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 147 grade C, 1 grade D, 8 grade E.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

  1. Lok Sabha / Rajya Sabha records. ↩
  2. Waqf LS 55.4, Waqf RS 57.4, ONOE 57.6, VP 60.1, 131st Amendment 56.4. ↩