Part VIII · The State

Chapter 36

Internal Security

Arena 7.8 · weight 1 · reading 69.7 · aligned majority

36.1Scope

Who holds the ground by force inside India, against armed groups other than Islamist ones.¹

The arena is measured by the State’s lawful security forces against CPI (Maoist), the North-East insurgents (ULFA-I, NSCN factions, the Manipur valley and hill groups) and Khalistani networks. Ground freed, who pays in blood, armed organisations settled, Maoist ranks left. Islamist threats are counted in Global Islam.

36.2Significance

Sovereignty on the ground, and investment and roads where the gun ruled. Borrowed power: the forces leave with office, the ground already won stays.

36.3Indicators and weights

Table 36.1 lists the 4 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 36.1. Indicators of arena 7.8

Indicator	Weight	Reading
Ground held: the peak insurgent footprint now free of violence²	0.30	78.5
Who pays in blood, 2024-26: insurgents killed vs security forces and civilians killed³	0.35	73.0
Armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed⁴	0.25	45.0
Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms⁵	0.10	93.9
Arena reading	1.00	69.7

36.4Reading

The arena reads 69.7, 19.7 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 1 of a total 107.7, it contributes 0.65 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms (93.9), the lowest for armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed (45.0).

Figure 36.1. Readings of arena 7.8 by indicator

050100

Ground held: the peak insurgent footprint now free of violence78.5

Who pays in blood, 2024-26: insurgents killed vs security forces and civilians killed73.0

Armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed45.0

Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms93.9

Arena reading69.7

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

36.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Ground held: the peak insurgent footprint now free of violence

Reading 78.6%

Freed 79 vs Still contested 21

Figure 36.2. Over time: Maoist districts (LWE activity districts, LWE affected districts, Most affected districts and 1 more) · districts

Maoist districts: LWE activity districtsMaoist districts: LWE affected districts (SRE list)Maoist districts: Most affected districtsMaoist districts: Districts of concern

Data table

	Maoist districts: LWE activity districts	Maoist districts: LWE affected districts (SRE list)	Maoist districts: Most affected districts	Maoist districts: Districts of concern
2009	223
2010	196
2013		126
2014	161		35
2015		106
2018		90	30
2021		70	25
2024		38	12
2025		8	3	6
2026		0	0	1

Figure 36.3. Over time: Maoist districts (Police stations LWE violence, Police stations LWE violence first half) · police stations

Maoist districts: Police stations LWE violenceMaoist districts: Police stations LWE violence first half

Data table

	Maoist districts: Police stations LWE violence	Maoist districts: Police stations LWE violence first half
2010	465
2013	330
2014	333
2021	191
2023	171
2024		89
2025	119	52
2026	60

Figure 36.4. Over time: Maoist ground (Fortified police stations) · stations

Data table

	Maoist ground: Fortified police stations
2014	66
2026	663

Figure 36.5. Over time: Maoist ground (New security camps cumulative) · camps

Data table

	Maoist ground: New security camps cumulative
2025	377
2026	408

Figure 36.6. Over time: Maoist ground (LWE influence area) · sq km

Data table

	Maoist ground: LWE influence area
2014	18,000
2025	4,200

Figure 36.7. Over time: North-East ground (AFSPA Manipur police stations excluded) · police stations

Data table

	North-East ground: AFSPA Manipur police stations excluded
2022	15
2026	13

Figure 36.8. Over time: North-East ground (Accord cadres Tripura, Accord cadres Assam) · cadres

North-East ground: Accord cadres TripuraNorth-East ground: Accord cadres Assam

Data table

	North-East ground: Accord cadres Tripura	North-East ground: Accord cadres Assam
2019	88
2020		1,615
2021		1,000
2022		1,182
2023		168
2024	328

Figure 36.9. Over time: North-East ground (AFSPA Arunachal districts full, AFSPA Assam districts full) · districts

North-East ground: AFSPA Arunachal districts fullNorth-East ground: AFSPA Assam districts full

Data table

	North-East ground: AFSPA Arunachal districts full	North-East ground: AFSPA Assam districts full
2015	3
2022	3
2023		8
2025		3
2026	3

Measure 2. Who pays in blood, 2024-26: insurgents killed vs security forces and civilians killed

Reading 73.0%

Insurgents killed 845 vs Security forces and civilians killed 313

Figure 36.10. Over time: Maoist violence, SATP (Maoists killed, Civilians killed, Security forces killed) · deaths

Maoist violence, SATP: Maoists killedMaoist violence, SATP: Civilians killedMaoist violence, SATP: Security forces killed

Data table

	Maoist violence, SATP: Maoists killed	Maoist violence, SATP: Civilians killed	Maoist violence, SATP: Security forces killed
2010	265	630	267
2013	151	164	103
2014	121	127	98
2018	230	108	73
2019	154	99	49
2020	134	61	44
2021	128	58	51
2022	67	53	15
2023	56	61	31
2024	296	80	21
2025	390	54	33
2026	75	4	4

Figure 36.11. Over time: Maoist violence, SATP (Exchange ratio maoists per security forces) · ratio

Data table

	Maoist violence, SATP: Exchange ratio maoists per security forces
2010	0.99
2013	1.47
2014	1.23
2018	3.15
2019	3.14
2020	3.05
2021	2.51
2022	4.47
2023	1.81
2024	14.1
2025	11.8
2026	18.8

Figure 36.12. Over time: Maoist violence, MHA (Maoists killed, Deaths civilians security forces, Civilians killed and 1 more) · deaths

Maoist violence, MHA: Maoists killedMaoist violence, MHA: Deaths civilians security forcesMaoist violence, MHA: Civilians killedMaoist violence, MHA: Security forces killed

Data table

	Maoist violence, MHA: Maoists killed	Maoist violence, MHA: Deaths civilians security forces	Maoist violence, MHA: Civilians killed	Maoist violence, MHA: Security forces killed
2010		1,005	720	285
2013		397
2014		309
2018	225		173	67
2019	145	202	150	52
2020	103		140	43
2021	126		97	50
2022			82	16
2023		139	107	32
2024	290	151	132	19
2025	364	100	64	36
2026		11	6	5

Figure 36.13. Over time: Maoist violence, MHA (Exchange ratio maoists per security forces) · ratio

Data table

	Maoist violence, MHA: Exchange ratio maoists per security forces
2018	3.36
2019	2.79
2020	2.4
2021	2.52
2024	15.3
2025	10.1

Figure 36.14. Over time: Maoist violence, MHA (LWE violent incidents total) · incidents

Data table

	Maoist violence, MHA: LWE violent incidents total
2010	2,213
2013	1,136
2014	1,091
2018	833
2019	670
2020	665

Figure 36.15. Over time: Maoist violence (LWE violent incidents)

Data table

	Maoist violence: LWE violent incidents (violence by Maoists)
2010	1,936
2014	870
2019	501
2021	361
2022	413
2023	486
2024	375
2025	234
2026	33

Figure 36.16. Over time: North-East violence (North-East incidents decline vs 2014) · percent

Data table

	North-East violence: North-East incidents decline vs 2014 (%)
2020	80
2023	71
2024	64

Figure 36.17. Over time: North-East violence (North-East militants killed, North-East militants arrested, North-East militants surrendered and 2 more) · persons

North-East violence: North-East militants killedNorth-East violence: North-East militants arrestedNorth-East violence: North-East militants surrenderedNorth-East violence: North-East security forces killedNorth-East violence: North-East civilians killed

Data table

	North-East violence: North-East militants killed	North-East violence: North-East militants arrested	North-East violence: North-East militants surrendered	North-East violence: North-East security forces killed	North-East violence: North-East civilians killed
2014	181	1,934	291	20	212
2023	40	407	1,595	8	38
2024	31	571	975	3	30
2025	23	1,330	136	2	5

Figure 36.18. Over time: North-East violence (North-East arms recovered) · weapons

Data table

	North-East violence: North-East arms recovered
2014	1,104
2025	322

Figure 36.19. Over time: North-East violence (North-East insurgency incidents) · incidents

Data table

	North-East violence: North-East insurgency incidents
2014	824
2020	162
2023	243
2024	294
2025	143

Figure 36.20. Over time: North-East violence (Manipur militants killed, Manipur militants arrested, Manipur security forces civilians killed) · persons

North-East violence: Manipur militants killedNorth-East violence: Manipur militants arrestedNorth-East violence: Manipur security forces civilians killed

Data table

	North-East violence: Manipur militants killed	North-East violence: Manipur militants arrested	North-East violence: Manipur security forces civilians killed
2023	33
2024	23	386	31
2025	15	1,148	6

Figure 36.21. Over time: North-East violence (Manipur insurgency incidents) · incidents

Data table

	North-East violence: Manipur insurgency incidents
2023	187
2024	226
2025	95

Figure 36.22. Over time: North-East violence, SATP (Manipur insurgency fatalities) · persons

Data table

	North-East violence, SATP: Manipur insurgency fatalities
2024	87
2025	58
2026	95

Figure 36.23. Over time: North-East violence (Rest of North-East insurgency incidents, Assam insurgency incidents) · incidents

North-East violence: Rest of North-East insurgency incidents (excluding Manipur)North-East violence: Assam insurgency incidents

Data table

	North-East violence: Rest of North-East insurgency incidents (excluding Manipur)	North-East violence: Assam insurgency incidents
2014		246
2023	56
2024	68
2025	48	5

Figure 36.24. Over time: Punjab: Terrorists killed, Punjab, SATP: Terror arrests, Punjab: Civilians killed and 1 more (persons)

Punjab: Terrorists killedPunjab, SATP: Terror arrestsPunjab: Civilians killedPunjab: Security forces killed

Data table

	Punjab: Terrorists killed	Punjab, SATP: Terror arrests	Punjab: Civilians killed	Punjab: Security forces killed
2014	0		0	0
2015	3		3	4
2016	14		4	7
2017	2		6	0
2018	0		3	0
2019	2		0	0
2020	2		1	0
2021	1		1	0
2022	0	55	2	0
2023	0	91	0	0
2024	0	92	1	0
2025	2	138	1	0
2026	4		0	4

Measure 3. Armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed

Reading 45.0%

Settled 9 vs Still armed (ceasefire groups included) 11

Figure 36.25. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (organisations)

Hindutva-aligned 9 organisations · 45.0%Opposed 11 organisations · 55.0%Transactional 0 organisations · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 organisations · 0.0%

Data table

	organisations	Share
Hindutva-aligned	9	45.0%
Opposed	11	55.0%
Transactional	0	0.0%
Neutral / not counted	0	0.0%

Figure 36.26. The 15 biggest of 20 (organisations)

CPI (Maoist) and its People's Liberation Guerrilla Army1

Babbar Khalsa International (BKI)1

Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF)1

United Liberation Front of Asom - Independent (ULFA-I)1

NSCN-K (Yung Aung)1

People's Liberation Army (Manipur) / Revolutionary People's Front (PLA/RPF)1

Manipur valley 'G-5' coalition (KCP, KYKL, PREPAK, PREPAK-Pro, UNLF-K)1

Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC)1

NSCN (Isak-Muivah)1

KNO and UPF groups under Suspension of Operations1

NSCN-K factions in ceasefire (Niki Sumi, Khango, Ang Mai)1

National Liberation Front of Tripura (Sabir Debbarma)1

National Democratic Front of Bodoland (all factions)1

Karbi armed groups (KLNLF, PDCK, UPLA, KPLT, KLF)1

The eight armed groups of the 15 Sep 2022 Assam agreement1

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Data table

	organisations	Side
CPI (Maoist) and its People's Liberation Guerrilla Army	1	Opposed
Babbar Khalsa International (BKI)	1	Opposed
Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF)	1	Opposed
United Liberation Front of Asom - Independent (ULFA-I)	1	Opposed
NSCN-K (Yung Aung)	1	Opposed
People's Liberation Army (Manipur) / Revolutionary People's Front (PLA/RPF)	1	Opposed
Manipur valley 'G-5' coalition (KCP, KYKL, PREPAK, PREPAK-Pro, UNLF-K)	1	Opposed
Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC)	1	Opposed
NSCN (Isak-Muivah)	1	Opposed
KNO and UPF groups under Suspension of Operations	1	Opposed
NSCN-K factions in ceasefire (Niki Sumi, Khango, Ang Mai)	1	Opposed
National Liberation Front of Tripura (Sabir Debbarma)	1	Hindutva-aligned
National Democratic Front of Bodoland (all factions)	1	Hindutva-aligned
Karbi armed groups (KLNLF, PDCK, UPLA, KPLT, KLF)	1	Hindutva-aligned
The eight armed groups of the 15 Sep 2022 Assam agreement	1	Hindutva-aligned

Measure 4. Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms

Reading 93.9%

Arrested or surrendered 6,145 vs Still under arms 400

Figure 36.27. Over time: Maoist ranks (Maoists arrested, Maoists surrendered, Maoists neutralised) (persons)

Maoist ranks: Maoists arrestedMaoist ranks: Maoists surrenderedMaoist ranks: Maoists neutralised

Data table

	Maoist ranks: Maoists arrested	Maoist ranks: Maoists surrendered	Maoist ranks: Maoists neutralised
2019	1,276	440
2020	1,110	475
2021	1,153	736
2022	816	496
2023	924	376
2024	1,090	881	290
2025	1,022	2,337	364

Measure 5. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading

Figure 36.28. Over time: J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA (Terrorists killed, Security forces killed, Civilians killed) · persons

J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Terrorists killedJ&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Security forces killedJ&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Civilians killed

Data table

	J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Terrorists killed	J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Security forces killed	J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Civilians killed
2014	110	47	28
2015	108	39	17
2016	150	82	15
2017	213	80	40
2018	257	91	38
2019		80	44
2020		63	38
2021		42	41
2022		32	31
2023		30	14
2024		31	26

Figure 36.29. Over time: J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA (Terrorist incidents) · incidents

Data table

	J&K (counted in Global Islam), MHA: Terrorist incidents
2014	222
2015	208
2016	322
2017	342
2018	614
2019	255
2020	244
2024	85

Figure 36.30. Over time: J&K (counted in Global Islam) (Terrorists killed, Security forces killed, Civilians killed and 3 more) (persons)

J&K (counted in Global Islam): Terrorists killedJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Security forces killedJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Civilians killedJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Net infiltration estimateJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Local recruitsJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Active terrorists foreign

Data table

	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Terrorists killed	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Security forces killed	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Civilians killed	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Net infiltration estimate	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Local recruits	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Active terrorists foreign
2014	114	47	28		53
2015	115	41	19		66
2016	165	88	14		88
2017	220	83	54		126
2018	271	95	86	143	191
2019	163	78	42	141	143
2020	232	56	33	51
2021	193	45	36
2022	193	30	30		100
2023	87	33	12		22
2024	69	26	31		7
2025	46	17	28		1	60
2026	17	2	2			122

Figure 36.31. Over time: J&K (counted in Global Islam) (Encounters CT operations) · operations

Data table

	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Encounters CT operations
2018	189
2019	102
2020	118
2021	100
2022	117
2023	48

Figure 36.32. Over time: J&K (counted in Global Islam) (Terrorist initiated incidents, Organised stone pelting, Stone pelting incidents) · incidents

J&K (counted in Global Islam): Terrorist initiated incidentsJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Organised stone peltingJ&K (counted in Global Islam): Stone pelting incidents

Data table

	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Terrorist initiated incidents	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Organised stone pelting	J&K (counted in Global Islam): Stone pelting incidents
2016			2,653
2017			1,412
2018	228	1,328	1,458
2019	153
2020	126
2021	129
2022	125
2023	46	0
2024		0

Figure 36.33. Over time: Bans and prosecutions (NIA conviction rate) · percent

Data table

	Bans and prosecutions: NIA conviction rate
2024	100
2025	92

Figure 36.34. Over time: Bans and prosecutions, NCRB: UAPA arrests, Hinterland terror: Hinterland civilians killed, Hinterland terror: Hinterland security forces k… · persons

Bans and prosecutions, NCRB: UAPA arrestsHinterland terror: Hinterland civilians killedHinterland terror: Hinterland security forces killed

Data table

	Bans and prosecutions, NCRB: UAPA arrests	Hinterland terror: Hinterland civilians killed	Hinterland terror: Hinterland security forces killed
2014		4	0
2015		3	4
2016		1	7
2017		0	0
2018		3	0
2019	1,948
2020	1,321
2021	1,621
2022	2,636
2023	2,914

Figure 36.35. Over time: Hinterland terror (Hinterland terror attacks) · attacks

Data table

	Hinterland terror: Hinterland terror attacks
2014	3
2015	1
2016	1
2017	0
2018	1

Figure 36.36. Ground held: the peak insurgent footprint now free of violence

Reading78.6%78.6 : 21.5

FreedStill contested

Data table

	Freed	Still contested	Freed share
Reading	78.6	21.5	78.6%

Figure 36.37. Who pays in blood, 2024-26: insurgents killed vs security forces and civilians killed

Reading73.0%845 : 313

Insurgents killedSecurity forces and civilians killed

Data table

	Insurgents killed	Security forces and civilians killed	Insurgents killed share
Reading	845	313	73.0%

Figure 36.38. Armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed

Reading45.0%9 : 11

SettledStill armed (ceasefire groups included)

Data table

	Settled	Still armed (ceasefire groups included)	Settled share
Reading	9	11	45.0%

Figure 36.39. Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms

Reading93.9%6,145 : 400

Arrested or surrenderedStill under arms

Data table

	Arrested or surrendered	Still under arms	Arrested or surrendered share
Reading	6,145	400	93.9%

36.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 128 coded units and 390 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 70 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 42 opposed and 16 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 62 grade A, 55 grade B, 11 grade C.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

MHA, PIB, Parliament answers; SATP; Punjab and Manipur Police; atlas/research10/internal_security/. ↩
Mean of two: police stations reporting Maoist violence, 465 in 2010 → 60 in Mar 2026 (87.1% freed, MHA); North-East area under AFSPA cut by 70% since 2014 (MHA, Mar 2025).. ↩
Maoist, North-East and Khalistani theatres, 1 Jan 2024 to Oct 2026: LWE 761 vs 196; PUNJAB 6 vs 6; NE 78 vs 111. SATP for the Maoist and Punjab theatres; MHA (2024-25) and SATP Manipur (2026) for the North-East. J&K and other Islamist terror sit in Global Islam.. ↩
20 non-Islamist organisations or networks, each counted once (armed_groups.csv, scope "arena"). 3 armed groups in ceasefire without a settlement (NSCN-IM, the KNO and UPF groups, NSCN-K factions) count against, as unclassified actors do (decision 1a); counted as half, it reads 52.5.. ↩
6145 arrested or surrendered (Jan 2024-Mar 2026, PIB; Shah gives 4,839 surrenders) vs about 400 armed cadres left (300-500). North-East and Khalistani strengths are not published.. ↩