The India Power Atlas
Part IX · External Actors
Chapter 39

The United States

Arena 8.3 · weight 3.60 · reading 24.4 · opposed majority

39.1Scope

The American state: tariffs, sanctions, visas, capital, defence technology, the dollar.

Principal evidence: Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs USA 80.5 (low end: GDP).

39.2Significance

Trade, H-1B visas, sanctions and access to technology; the United States also hosts most of the institutions assessed in the preceding chapter.

39.3Indicators and weights

Table 39.1 lists the 4 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 39.1. Indicators of arena 8.3

IndicatorWeightReading
Economic (Lowy relationships and capability)10.3524.7
Security (Lowy military, defence networks)10.2025.9
Narrative (Lowy diplomatic and cultural)20.2539.6
US foundation money30.203.2
Arena reading1.0024.4

39.4Reading

The arena reads 24.4, 25.6 points below parity, and is classified as opposed majority (a reading below 45). With a weight of 3.60 of a total 107.7, it contributes 0.81 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for narrative (Lowy diplomatic and cultural) (39.6), the lowest for US foundation money (3.2).

Figure 39.1. Readings of arena 8.3 by indicator
050100
Economic (Lowy relationships and capability)24.7
Security (Lowy military, defence networks)25.9
Narrative (Lowy diplomatic and cultural)39.6
US foundation money3.2
Arena reading24.4
Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

39.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Economic (Lowy relationships and capability)

Reading 24.7%

g_usa_units.csv

Figure 39.2. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 18 (score /100)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Lowy API 2025: United States Military capability88.9
Lowy API 2025: United States Economic capability87.8
Lowy API 2025: United States Resilience84.3
Lowy API 2025: United States Cultural influence84.2
Lowy API 2025: United States Diplomatic influence82.7
Lowy API 2025: United States Defence networks81.4
Lowy API 2025: United States overall80.5
Lowy API 2025: United States Future resources77.3
Lowy API 2025: India Diplomatic influence70.8
Lowy API 2025: United States Economic relationships56.8
Lowy API 2025: India Resilience55.5
Lowy API 2025: India Future resources55.1
Lowy API 2025: India Military capability48
Lowy API 2025: India Cultural influence41.5
Lowy API 2025: India overall40
0100
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
score /100Side
Lowy API 2025: United States Military capability88.9Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Economic capability87.8Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Resilience84.3Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Cultural influence84.2Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Diplomatic influence82.7Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Defence networks81.4Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States overall80.5Opposed
Lowy API 2025: United States Future resources77.3Opposed
Lowy API 2025: India Diplomatic influence70.8Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: United States Economic relationships56.8Opposed
Lowy API 2025: India Resilience55.5Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Future resources55.1Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Military capability48Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Cultural influence41.5Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India overall40Hindutva-aligned
Figure 39.3. Over time: H-1B petitions approved for Indians · approved petitions
01 lakh2 lakh20242025H-1B petitions approved for Indians 2024: 2,83,397approved petitionsH-1B petitions approved for Indians 2025: 2,83,772approved petitions2.8 lakh
Data table
H-1B petitions approved for Indians
20242,83,397
20252,83,772
Figure 39.4. Over time: Indians’ share of H-1B approvals · % of approved H-1B petitions
0204060802022202320242025Indians’ share of H-1B approvals 2022: 72.6% of approved H-1B petitionsIndians’ share of H-1B approvals 2023: 72.3% of approved H-1B petitionsIndians’ share of H-1B approvals 2024: 71% of approved H-1B petitionsIndians’ share of H-1B approvals 2025: 69.8% of approved H-1B petitions69.8
Data table
Indians’ share of H-1B approvals
202272.6
202372.3
202471
202569.8
Figure 39.5. Over time: USA’s share of India’s exports · % of India total exports
051015202014201620182020202220242026USA’s share of India’s exports 2014: 12.5% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2015: 13.7% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2016: 15.4% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2017: 15.3% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2018: 15.8% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2019: 15.9% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2020: 16.9% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2021: 17.7% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2022: 18.1% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2023: 17.4% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2024: 17.7% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2025: 19.8% of India total exportsUSA’s share of India’s exports 2026: 19.8% of India total exports19.8
Data table
USA’s share of India’s exports
201412.5
201513.7
201615.4
201715.3
201815.8
201915.9
202016.9
202117.7
202218.1
202317.4
202417.7
202519.8
202619.8
Figure 39.6. Over time: India’s exports to USA, India’s imports from USA, Trade balance with USA · $ billion
02550752014201620182020202220242026India’s exports to USA 2014: 39.1$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2015: 42.4$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2016: 40.3$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2017: 42.2$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2018: 47.9$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2019: 52.4$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2020: 53.1$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2021: 51.6$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2022: 76.2$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2023: 78.5$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2024: 77.5$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2025: 86.5$ billionIndia’s exports to USA 2026: 87.3$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2014: 22.5$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2015: 21.8$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2016: 21.8$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2017: 22.3$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2018: 26.6$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2019: 35.5$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2020: 35.8$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2021: 28.9$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2022: 43.3$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2023: 50.9$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2024: 42.1$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2025: 45.6$ billionIndia’s imports from USA 2026: 53.5$ billionTrade balance with USA 2014: 16.6$ billionTrade balance with USA 2015: 20.6$ billionTrade balance with USA 2016: 18.6$ billionTrade balance with USA 2017: 19.9$ billionTrade balance with USA 2018: 21.3$ billionTrade balance with USA 2019: 16.9$ billionTrade balance with USA 2020: 17.3$ billionTrade balance with USA 2021: 22.7$ billionTrade balance with USA 2022: 32.9$ billionTrade balance with USA 2023: 27.7$ billionTrade balance with USA 2024: 35.4$ billionTrade balance with USA 2025: 40.9$ billionTrade balance with USA 2026: 33.9$ billion87.353.533.9
India’s exports to USAIndia’s imports from USATrade balance with USA
Data table
India’s exports to USAIndia’s imports from USATrade balance with USA
201439.122.516.6
201542.421.820.6
201640.321.818.6
201742.222.319.9
201847.926.621.3
201952.435.516.9
202053.135.817.3
202151.628.922.7
202276.243.332.9
202378.550.927.7
202477.542.135.4
202586.545.640.9
202687.353.533.9
Figure 39.7. Over time: USA’s share of India’s imports · % of India total imports
02.557.5102014201620182020202220242026USA’s share of India’s imports 2014: 5% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2015: 4.87% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2016: 5.72% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2017: 5.8% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2018: 5.72% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2019: 6.92% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2020: 7.55% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2021: 7.32% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2022: 7.07% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2023: 7.1% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2024: 6.25% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2025: 6.33% of India total importsUSA’s share of India’s imports 2026: 6.89% of India total imports6.89
Data table
USA’s share of India’s imports
20145
20154.87
20165.72
20175.8
20185.72
20196.92
20207.55
20217.32
20227.07
20237.1
20246.25
20256.33
20266.89

Measure 2. Security (Lowy military, defence networks)

Reading 25.9%

g_usa_units.csv

Measure 3. Narrative (Lowy diplomatic and cultural)

Reading 39.6%

Mean of Lowy diplomatic 46.1 and cultural 33.0. Washington lobbying moved to India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power.

Figure 39.8. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (₹ crore)
Hindutva-aligned 171 ₹ crore · 99.1%Opposed 0 ₹ crore · 0.0%Transactional 0 ₹ crore · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 1.64 ₹ crore · 0.9%
Data table
₹ croreShare
Hindutva-aligned17199.1%
Opposed00.0%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted1.640.9%
Figure 39.9. The 12 biggest of 12 (₹ crore)
FARA: Republic of India (Embassy)94.5
FARA: Republic of India59.7
FARA: Embassy of India9.82
FARA: Invest India3.76
FARA: Govt of Maharashtra (via Concept PR)2.15
FARA: Bharatiya Janata Party1.27
FARA: Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council1
FARA: Kerala Tourism (via Stark Communications)0.21
FARA: Karnataka Tourism (via Stark)0.19
FARA: Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao (Telangana, BRS)0.15
FARA: Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance0.08
FARA: Democracy News Live0.04
Hindutva-alignedNeutral / not counted
Data table
₹ croreSide
FARA: Republic of India (Embassy)94.5Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Republic of India59.7Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Embassy of India9.82Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Invest India3.76Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Govt of Maharashtra (via Concept PR)2.15Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Bharatiya Janata Party1.27Hindutva-aligned
FARA: Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council1Neutral / not counted
FARA: Kerala Tourism (via Stark Communications)0.21Neutral / not counted
FARA: Karnataka Tourism (via Stark)0.19Neutral / not counted
FARA: Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao (Telangana, BRS)0.15Neutral / not counted
FARA: Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance0.08Neutral / not counted
FARA: Democracy News Live0.04Hindutva-aligned
Figure 39.10. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount…)
Hindutva-aligned 72,40,000 US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount… · 11.6%Opposed 34,89,836 US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount… · 5.6%Transactional 5,16,44,200 US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount… · 82.8%Neutral / not counted 0 US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount… · 0.0%
Data table
US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount…Share
Hindutva-aligned72,40,00011.6%
Opposed34,89,8365.6%
Transactional5,16,44,20082.8%
Neutral / not counted00.0%
Figure 39.11. The 15 biggest of 38 (US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount…)
LDA: COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS U.S. CORPORATION2,13,40,000
LDA: REPUBLIC OF INDIA71,40,000
LDA: TATA AMERICA INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION68,68,000
LDA: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICES COMPANIES (NASSCOM)42,10,000
LDA: RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LIMITED40,35,000
LDA: INFOSYS LIMITED32,40,000
LDA: TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES25,10,000
LDA: INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL ALLIANCE(FORMERLY INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL ASSOCIATION)20,10,000
LDA: FDD ACTION16,60,000
LDA: COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS - U S CORPORATION14,10,000
LDA: NASSCOM (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICE COMPANIES)13,90,000
LDA: WIPRO, LLC13,00,000
LDA: AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL OF THE USA INC9,04,836
LDA: US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP FORUM, INC.7,40,000
LDA: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICE COMPANIES4,20,000
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactional
Data table
US$ (LDA filings mentioning India; amount…Side
LDA: COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS U.S. CORPORATION2,13,40,000Transactional
LDA: REPUBLIC OF INDIA71,40,000Hindutva-aligned
LDA: TATA AMERICA INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION68,68,000Transactional
LDA: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICES COMPANIES (NASSCOM)42,10,000Transactional
LDA: RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LIMITED40,35,000Transactional
LDA: INFOSYS LIMITED32,40,000Transactional
LDA: TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES25,10,000Transactional
LDA: INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL ALLIANCE(FORMERLY INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL ASSOCIATION)20,10,000Transactional
LDA: FDD ACTION16,60,000Opposed
LDA: COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS - U S CORPORATION14,10,000Transactional
LDA: NASSCOM (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICE COMPANIES)13,90,000Transactional
LDA: WIPRO, LLC13,00,000Transactional
LDA: AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL OF THE USA INC9,04,836Opposed
LDA: US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP FORUM, INC.7,40,000Transactional
LDA: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICE COMPANIES4,20,000Transactional
Figure 39.12. Over time: FARA (Government of India and BJP, other India principals) (US$)
05 lakh10 lakh15 lakh20052010201520202025FARA: Government of India and BJP 2005: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2006: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2007: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2008: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2009: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2010: 0US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2011: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2012: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2013: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2014: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2015: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2016: 14,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2017: 12,25,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2018: 10,50,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2019: 3,50,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2020: 5,25,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2021: 6,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2022: 6,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2023: 6,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2024: 6,00,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2025: 5,50,000US$FARA: Government of India and BJP 2026: 18,00,000US$FARA: other India principals 2010: 0US$FARA: other India principals 2011: 0US$FARA: other India principals 2020: 26,000US$FARA: other India principals 2021: 1,35,000US$FARA: other India principals 2023: 25,137US$FARA: other India principals 2025: 0US$18 lakh0
FARA: Government of India and BJPFARA: other India principals
Data table
FARA: Government of India and BJPFARA: other India principals
20050
20060
20070
20080
20090
201000
201114,00,0000
201214,00,000
201314,00,000
201414,00,000
201514,00,000
201614,00,000
201712,25,000
201810,50,000
20193,50,000
20205,25,00026,000
20216,00,0001,35,000
20226,00,000
20236,00,00025,137
20246,00,000
20255,50,0000
202618,00,000

Measure 4. US foundation money

Reading 3.2%

Grant level 29.8

Figure 39.13. The money flow: from whom, through which camp, to where1803 flows counted, ₹31,630 crore.
foundation → Opposed: ₹17,648 crfoundation → Neutral / not counted: ₹11,436 crdiaspora charity → Hindutva-aligned: ₹881 crdiaspora charity → Opposed: ₹773 crdiaspora charity → Neutral / not counted: ₹659 crUS government → Opposed: ₹101 crfoundation → Hindutva-aligned: ₹73 crfaith-based / church agency → Opposed: ₹59 crOpposed → Indian grantee: ₹18,480 crNeutral / not counted → Indian grantee: ₹12,096 crHindutva → Indian grantee: ₹954 crOpposed → foreign university South Asia programme: ₹101 crfoundation: ₹29,157 crfoundation · ₹29,157diaspora charity: ₹2,313 crdiaspora charity · ₹2,313US government: ₹101 crfaith-based / church agency: ₹59 crHindutva-aligned: ₹954 crOpposed: ₹18,580 cr58.7%Neutral / not counted: ₹12,096 cr38.2%Indian grantee: ₹31,530 crIndian grantee · ₹31,530foreign university South Asia programme: ₹101 cr
Hindutva-aligned ₹954 cr · 3.0%Opposed ₹18,580 cr · 58.7%Neutral / not counted ₹12,096 cr · 38.2%
Left: where the money comes from · Middle: the camp it strengthens · Right: where it goes
Figure 39.14. The biggest sources, by the camp their money strengthens (₹ crore)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation19,726
Michael & Susan Dell Foundation1,727
MacArthur Foundation1,575
Ford Foundation1,095
CARE USA766
Open Philanthropy / Good Ventures549
American India Foundation503
Akshaya Patra USA502
Hewlett Foundation464
Packard Foundation423
Rockefeller Foundation395
ChildFund International USA379
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not counted
Data table
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not countedTotal
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation55.39,73609,93519,726
Michael & Susan Dell Foundation01,20705201,727
MacArthur Foundation15.01,31902411,575
Ford Foundation0.6890801861,095
CARE USA076600766
Open Philanthropy / Good Ventures0463086.1549
American India Foundation000503503
Akshaya Patra USA502000502
Hewlett Foundation1.6545209.64464
Packard Foundation0342080.7423
Rockefeller Foundation0375019.1395
ChildFund International USA037900379
Figure 39.15. The biggest recipients (₹ crore)
BIOLOGICAL E LIMITED1,017
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of CAR766
CARE721
University of Manitoba628
Piramal Swasthya564
International Institute of Information Technolog516
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Ame503
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Aks502
Global Alliance for Viksit Bharat Foundation456
International Crops Research Institute for the S391
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Chi379
International Bank for Reconstruction and Develo345
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not counted
Data table
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not countedTotal
BIOLOGICAL E LIMITED0001,0171,017
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of CAR076600766
CARE072100721
University of Manitoba062800628
Piramal Swasthya000564564
International Institute of Information Technolog000516516
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Ame000503503
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Aks502000502
Global Alliance for Viksit Bharat Foundation045600456
International Crops Research Institute for the S000391391
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Chi037900379
International Bank for Reconstruction and Develo034500345

Measure 5. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading

Figure 39.16. Over time: Hostile acts recorded (events)
0510152020182020202220242026Hostile acts recorded 2018: 1eventsHostile acts recorded 2019: 9eventsHostile acts recorded 2020: 2eventsHostile acts recorded 2021: 1eventsHostile acts recorded 2022: 2eventsHostile acts recorded 2023: 6eventsHostile acts recorded 2024: 3eventsHostile acts recorded 2025: 13eventsHostile acts recorded 2026: 17events17
Data table
Hostile acts recorded
20181
20199
20202
20211
20222
20236
20243
202513
202617
Figure 39.17. Planning threat of each global player (reach × hostility, out of 100)Each player’s weight out of 5 = threat ÷ 20, unless set by hand.
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies84.6
USA72
China72
Big Tech53.1
Global Islam47.1
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power40
Others16.5
Global Christianity9
Data table
ValueSide
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies84.6Other
USA72Opposed
China72Other
Big Tech53.1Other
Global Islam47.1Other
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power40Other
Others16.5Other
Global Christianity9Other

39.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 217 coded units and 108 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 27 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 108 opposed and 82 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 118 grade A, 18 grade B, 77 grade C, 4 grade D.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

  1. g_usa_units.csv. ↩
  2. Mean of Lowy diplomatic 46.1 and cultural 33.0. Washington lobbying moved to India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power.. ↩
  3. Grant level 29.8. ↩