Codebook of Arenas and Indicators
For each arena: its indicators, the weight of each within the arena, and the baseline reading. Notes on sources and construction are in the chapter for each arena.
II. Demography and Identity
1.1 Religious Demography and Electoral Geography · weight 3 · reading 81.9
| Projected 2026 faith base (Pew path for Hindus and Muslims; Jain, Christian and Buddhist held at Census 2011) | 0.60 | 81.6 |
| Seat arithmetic: Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are under 20% | 0.40 | 82.3 |
1.2 Cross-Caste Voting Cohesion among Hindus · weight 4 · reading 42.4
| National: NDA share of ALL Hindu votes, by caste group (NES 2024) | 0.50 | 49.4 |
| States: NDA share of the Hindu vote in the latest assembly election (Hindu-population weighted) | 0.30 | 48.7 |
| Cohesion: share of Hindus in caste groups where the NDA wins a majority | 0.20 | 19.7 |
1.3 The Committed Core Electorate · weight 5 · reading 15.9
| BJP floor vote, Lok Sabha 2009 (% of voters) | 0.30 | 18.8 |
| BJP vote that does not depend on Modi | 0.20 | 27.4 |
| BJP party identification (NES 2024, % feel close) | 0.30 | 19.2 |
| Population-weighted state floor 2000-26 (elections where the BJP contested at least half the seats) | 0.20 | 18.5 |
III. Society and Organisation
2.1 Party and Movement Cadres · weight 3 · reading 51.3
| Active political cadres, adjusted (millions) | 0.55 | 51.0 |
| Cadre intensity: organised units that meet on a fixed cycle | 0.30 | 65.1 |
| Campus elections 2026-27 (ABVP share of central-panel posts, 9 campuses) | 0.15 | 24.8 |
2.2 Public Opinion on Contested Questions · weight 3 · reading 50.7
| Policy positions (9 all-adult items, sample- and recency-weighted) | 0.40 | 59.8 |
| Identity positions (7 items) | 0.40 | 39.3 |
| Intensity and salience | 0.20 | 55.5 |
2.3 Religious Leadership and Institutions · weight 3 · reading 68.8
| YouTube subscribers of religious leaders, ministries and institutions (193 channels) | 0.20 | 54.1 |
| YouTube views in the last 12 months, same channels | 0.20 | 63.3 |
| Organised institutions (temples, mathas vs churches, mosques, madrasas) | 0.30 | 82.3 |
| Money of religious bodies (₹ cr a year) | 0.30 | 68.6 |
2.4 The NGO and Advocacy Sector · weight 3 · reading 25.7
| Money reaching organisations in India (₹ cr a year) | 0.25 | 15.1 |
| Network centrality (out-strength of civil-society nodes) | 0.30 | 30.1 |
| Service footprint (units on the ground) | 0.10 | 69.5 |
| Litigation output (landmark contested cases) | 0.15 | 22.3 |
| UN and rights reporting (UPR submissions) | 0.10 | 0.0 |
2.5 Street Mobilisation and Veto Power · weight 3 · reading 41.5
| Veto points won 2019-26: the State, companies, studios, platforms and venues made to back down | 0.60 | 41.9 |
| Veto points won 1985-2026 (State and institution back-downs, 139 counted episodes) | 0.20 | 36.8 |
| Mobilisation capacity: top three episodes 2019-26 by states covered and duration, mass-contact drives included | 0.20 | 44.8 |
IV. Economy and Money
3.1 Large Business Owners · weight 2 · reading 38.3
| Documented commitment of the top 100 (by wealth; transactional counts against) | 0.30 | 9.5 |
| Party money of the top 100, transactional at 50% (FY2019-20 to FY2024-25) | 0.30 | 51.5 |
| News TV owned by top-100 owners, by content audit | 0.20 | 100.0 |
| Owners’ ideological-cause philanthropy | 0.20 | 13.2 |
3.2 Private Funding for Ideological Causes · weight 3 · reading 42.3
| Cause money, cleaned (₹ cr a year) | 0.70 | 35.2 |
| Ideology-producing money only (advocacy, think tanks, media, cadre bodies) | 0.30 | 58.8 |
3.3 Trade Unions, Co-operatives and Farmer Organisations · weight 1 · reading 28.2
| Co-operatives: who controls the largest co-ops and co-op banks, by size (elected boards) | 0.35 | 46.5 |
| Union members: BMS share of verified central trade-union membership | 0.25 | 25.0 |
| Shop floor: union recognition polls and bargaining seats in railways, coal, steel and transport | 0.20 | 13.1 |
| Farmer fronts: claimed members, Bharatiya Kisan Sangh vs the Kisan Sabha and farm-workers’ union | 0.20 | 15.2 |
V. Knowledge and Expertise
4.1 Universities and Think Tanks · weight 3 · reading 15.7
| Think-tank citation reach (courts, Parliament, news, Wikipedia, OpenAlex) | 0.30 | 7.0 |
| Vice-chancellors (147 universities) | 0.25 | 8.8 |
| Academics’ open letters (signatories) | 0.15 | 10.0 |
| Research-council leadership appointed 2014-26 | 0.15 | 26.6 |
| Council grants on agenda themes | 0.05 | 6.5 |
| Publishers and journals (revenue) | 0.05 | 37.6 |
| Endowed chairs and foreign South Asia programmes (₹ a year; endowments at a 5% payout) | 0.05 | 73.3 |
4.2 Expert Authority within the State · weight 3 · reading 7.2
| Named expert actors, venue-weighted citations | 0.60 | 8.7 |
| Recent trend: 2023-26 citations | 0.20 | 7.0 |
| State expert bodies with a Hindutva-agenda mandate (budget share) | 0.20 | 3.0 |
4.3 Schools, Textbooks and Civil-Service Preparation · weight 1 · reading 44.7
| Pupils in ideological school networks | 0.35 | 41.2 |
| Elite schools by management | 0.25 | 28.8 |
| Textbook changes 2014-26 (NCERT and states) | 0.20 | 82.9 |
| UPSC coaching influence (audited items and booklists) | 0.15 | 22.6 |
| Sainik-school PPP allotments | 0.05 | 62.5 |
VI. Media and Narrative
5.1 Television News · weight 3 · reading 58.2
| Broadcast audience by side, weighted by language (91 channels) | 0.75 | 55.0 |
| TV news brands on YouTube (149 channels, 12-month views) | 0.25 | 67.8 |
5.2 Interpersonal Political Communication · weight 3 · reading 53.7
| Family talk | 0.33 | 52.7 |
| Street and workplace talk | 0.17 | 52.7 |
| Temple and congregation (explicitly political content only) | 0.46 | 74.2 |
| WhatsApp forwards | 0.04 | 65.2 |
5.3 Digital Platforms · weight 3 · reading 29.3
| YouTube long-form recent-video views (proxy; 324 independent channels; TV brands counted in TV news) | 0.37 | 22.1 |
| Instagram reel views (mean views per recent reel × accounts; 220 accounts (262 audited; TV-brand and government handles excluded)) | 0.31 | 36.2 |
| AI assistants (5 models: 4 Claude, gpt-oss-20b; 205 answers on contested India questions) | 0.14 | 17.3 |
| YouTube subscribers (324 independent channels; TV brands counted in TV news) | 0.06 | 27.1 |
| Instagram followers (same 220 accounts) | 0.06 | 60.3 |
| X followers (193 accounts; TV-brand and government handles excluded) | 0.06 | 57.4 |
| Followers from Pakistan and Bangladesh (X and Instagram) | 0.11 | 14.0 |
5.4 Newspapers and the Elite Press · weight 3 · reading 21.7
| Readership: all papers by average issue readership | 0.35 | 24.8 |
| Readership: English papers (the elite agenda) | 0.15 | 3.3 |
| Elite credibility: brand trust, elite reach and impact investigations (45 outlets) | 0.50 | 25.0 |
5.5 Celebrities and Influencers · weight 1 · reading 37.6
| Documented acts, strength-weighted (incl. NEET/CJP protests 2026) | 0.40 | 34.3 |
| Acts weighted by the actor’s followers | 0.30 | 48.6 |
| Followers by net side | 0.30 | 41.6 |
| Followers from Pakistan and Bangladesh | 0.11 | 8.5 |
5.6 Cinema and Streaming · weight 2 · reading 56.3
| Cinema 2024-26 (gross and title share) | 0.09 | 66.6 |
| Cinema 2014-26 | 0.03 | 49.3 |
| Streaming (originals and films streamed; count and Ormax viewership) | 0.89 | 55.6 |
VII. Elections
6.1 Vote Share · weight 4 · reading 43.2
| Lok Sabha 2024: NDA share of all votes | 0.40 | 43.8 |
| Latest assembly election in all 31 legislatures (population-weighted NDA share) | 0.45 | 41.7 |
| Bypolls 2024-26 (seats won) | 0.15 | 45.4 |
6.2 The Conversion of Votes into Seats · weight 4 · reading 50.7
| Seats won | 0.25 | 54.0 |
| Seats held after stress swing | 0.40 | 41.3 |
| Battleground seats won (margin < 5) | 0.15 | 52.1 |
| Assembly seats held now (31 legislatures) | 0.15 | 60.2 |
| Big-city corporations (budget-weighted) | 0.05 | 77.2 |
6.3 Leadership Popularity · weight 3 · reading 60.0
| Best PM vs all named rivals (MOTN Aug 2026) | 0.45 | 53.4 |
| PM performance good/outstanding vs poor (MOTN) | 0.20 | 65.4 |
| Lokniti NES 2024 PM choice | 0.20 | 60.3 |
| Morning Consult approval (Mar 2026) | 0.15 | 72.3 |
6.4 Party Finance · weight 3 · reading 58.4
| Income share of all parties, FY2023-25 | 0.40 | 59.1 |
| Spending (party expenditure and LS 2024 campaign) | 0.30 | 50.4 |
| Reserves: party assets at 31 Mar 2025 | 0.30 | 65.4 |
VIII. The State
7.1 Executive Office · weight 5 · reading 89.5
| Union executive | 0.45 | 100.0 |
| State executives by population (NDA-ally CMs at 0.75) | 0.45 | 76.7 |
| Raj Bhavans: governors and LGs appointed by the Union | 0.10 | 100.0 |
7.2 Public Expenditure · weight 3 · reading 81.1
| Combined spending controlled, 2026-27 | 0.60 | 82.9 |
| Cash to citizens (DBT and state cash schemes) | 0.25 | 80.2 |
| State social-sector spending in NDA-run states | 0.15 | 75.2 |
7.3 Police and Central Agencies · weight 1 · reading 84.7
| Personnel commanded (state police, CAPF, agencies) | 0.80 | 84.5 |
| Police budget controlled, 2026-27 | 0.20 | 85.3 |
7.4 The Civil Services · weight 1 · reading 56.5
| Control of postings × (1 − opposing actors drag) | 1.00 | 56.5 |
7.5 Regulators, Commissions and Appointed Bodies · weight 1 · reading 65.7
| Central appointed bodies (102) | 0.75 | 76.5 |
| State bodies (97, in 12 states) | 0.25 | 45.4 |
7.6 Parliament · weight 4 · reading 63.8
| Lok Sabha strength now (NDA incl. the 20 NCPI MPs) | 0.55 | 58.7 |
| Rajya Sabha strength now | 0.25 | 62.1 |
| Key contested votes 2024-26 (ayes share for the NDA position) | 0.20 | 80.0 |
7.7 The Judiciary · weight 3 · reading 43.5
| High-significance rulings, all years (significance-weighted) | 0.60 | 46.2 |
| Recent window 2024-26 | 0.30 | 34.6 |
| Judges’ post-retirement posts (NDA vs others) | 0.10 | 53.7 |
7.8 Internal Security · weight 1 · reading 69.7
| Ground held: the peak insurgent footprint now free of violence | 0.30 | 78.5 |
| Who pays in blood, 2024-26: insurgents killed vs security forces and civilians killed | 0.35 | 73.0 |
| Armed organisations: settled since 2019 vs still armed | 0.25 | 45.0 |
| Maoist ranks: cadres arrested or surrendered since 2024 vs still under arms | 0.10 | 93.9 |
IX. External Actors
8.1 Western Media, Academia, Philanthropy and Rights Bodies · weight 4.23 · reading 18.1
| Narrative: foreign media, index sourcing, UN | 0.30 | 18.3 |
| Western philanthropy (funder-level expected value) | 0.25 | 3.2 |
| Whose experts are cited | 0.25 | 7.2 |
| Gatekeeping: share of the foreign-money channel the State has shut | 0.20 | 50.2 |
8.2 Global Technology Platforms · weight 2.65 · reading 31.0
| Technological dependence (OS, search, ads, cloud, payment apps, AI) | 0.15 | 13.4 |
| Economic exposure: IT-services exports, jobs and tax tied to Big Tech | 0.15 | 9.9 |
| Control of discourse: who prevails when the State and the platforms contest content | 0.10 | 58.7 |
| Narrative machinery (AI answers, Meta-funded fact-checking) | 0.20 | 26.7 |
| Big Tech money into Indian discourse (creator payouts, news funds) | 0.25 | 21.9 |
| India’s regulatory counter-leverage (IT Rules, CCI, UPI rails) | 0.15 | 72.2 |
8.3 The United States · weight 3.60 · reading 24.4
| Economic (Lowy relationships and capability) | 0.35 | 24.7 |
| Security (Lowy military, defence networks) | 0.20 | 25.9 |
| Narrative (Lowy diplomatic and cultural) | 0.25 | 39.6 |
| US foundation money | 0.20 | 3.2 |
8.4 China · weight 3.60 · reading 34.0
| Economic (Lowy relationships, supply chokepoints) | 0.45 | 23.3 |
| Security (Lowy military, defence networks) | 0.35 | 43.5 |
| Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural) | 0.20 | 41.7 |
8.5 Pakistan, Bangladesh and Transnational Islamist Networks · weight 2.35 · reading 61.5
| Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters) | 0.14 | 59.5 |
| Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-23 | 0.06 | 64.8 |
| Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland) | 0.06 | 52.2 |
| Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio | 0.25 | 65.6 |
| Pakistan: Economic (Lowy) | 0.06 | 87.1 |
| Pakistan: Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural) | 0.11 | 78.8 |
| Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together) | 0.04 | 14.0 |
| Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0) | 0.10 | 81.6 |
| Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 2024 | 0.07 | 16.7 |
| Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together) | 0.01 | 14.0 |
8.6 Europe, Russia, the Gulf and Other States · weight 0.82 · reading 38.2
| Russia, Gulf, Japan & others: Member-weighted share (Lowy or GDP: Russia, Gulf, Japan, Canada, Turkey, Iran …) | 0.38 | 69.8 |
| Russia, Gulf, Japan & others: Energy security (100 − crude import share) | 0.25 | 11.3 |
| Europe: Economic interdependence | 0.18 | 16.8 |
| Europe: Defence interdependence | 0.11 | 45.3 |
| Europe: European-origin grants | 0.07 | 9.4 |
8.7 Transnational Christian Organisations · weight 0.45 · reading 48.6
| Demography (Hindus 79.8 vs Christians 2.3, counted once) | 0.35 | 97.2 |
| Foreign religious money (FCRA) | 0.25 | 19.6 |
| Gatekeeping: anti-conversion laws and FCRA channel shut | 0.20 | 48.3 |
| Persecution-index sources | 0.20 | 0.0 |
8.8 The Diaspora and India’s Image Abroad · weight 2 · reading 38.5
| Organisations abroad: Hindu and pro-India vs opposing (revenue, ₹ cr a year) | 0.25 | 23.3 |
| Lobbying and political money (FARA, LDA, PACs, 2020-26) | 0.20 | 50.9 |
| Resolutions and laws won abroad (caste, Hinduphobia, CAA, Khalistan), 2019-26 | 0.20 | 42.0 |
| Diaspora opinion: approve of Modi, share of all (US, UK) | 0.20 | 39.6 |
| India’s image abroad (Pew: favourable view of India, confidence in Modi) | 0.15 | 41.0 |